WIG (pol. Warszawski Indeks Giełdowy, which is main index on Warsaw Stock Exchange) and S&P 500 are two indexes that I constantly monitor while trading stocks. As you may not know, currently I trade only on Warsaw Stock Exchange, but watching S&P 500 is very important, because most times WIG behave very similar to S&P 500.
Recently, I closed all my positions on stocks taking some serious losses. I didn’t have enough time to watch daily all stocks I picked and react when it was necessary. When the trend is not clear or even worse when trend is opposite to your position, ‘buy and keep’ strategy is definitely not an option. It wasn’t easy to take such a serious loss, but now I know that I saved my money from further losses.
Let’s take a look at both indexes and see how they look like from technical point of view. I don’t want to go too much into details, only basic and simple overview.
S&P 500 with SMA 100. Starting in second half of 2006 SMA100 is going up indicating uptrend. In October SMA 100 is flat. Index reached maximum and from there SMA started to slowly go down. It was the beginning of downtrend. As you can see, SMA still moves down.
Now we take a closer look in shorter perspective. There is a strong support near 1270 points, which worked well in past three times. Last days this support stops more losses. Now, the movement in upward direction is very likely, however resistance in half of black marubozu from Thursday is important. Breaking this resistance would be a nice signal to continue upward movement.
As you can see, it is very possible that there would be short-term upward movement on S&P 500. However the situation on WIG is a little different.
First, short look at WIG with SMA 100. Looks similar to S&P 500. What is interesting, that WIG reached own maximum in July, before S&P 500.
In shorter perspective situation is worse than on S&P500. WIG broke the level of minimum from January. The support didn’t work; therefore further movement in downward direction is possible.
Now it would be very interesting to watch both indexes and compare their behavior, but until there are strong signals for upward movement, I’m mostly away from the market. Right now I keep almost all my money on saving accounts and I invest in…
…this is the subject for another post.








